Climate Science + Geopolitics + National Security

Where climate action meets sovereign strategy.

The Keeling Pledge unites atmospheric science, economic architecture, and geopolitical analysis into policy frameworks that advance national security across America, Europe, and Latin America.

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CO₂
"An attempt to flatten the Keeling curve (post-industrial GHG emissions) while embedding climate resilience within future national security frameworks."
The Keeling Pledge, founding mandate

The chemistry we’re
up against.

CO₂ gets the headlines, but other gases trap heat thousands of times more effectively per molecule. Fluorinated gases like SF₆ sit at the far extreme.

OCO linear · 180° · 2 × (C=O)
Carbon dioxide
CO₂
GWP 1 · the baseline, emitted in gigatonnes
HHHH C tetrahedral · 109.5° · 4 × (C–H)
Methane
CH₄
≈28× CO₂ over a 100-year horizon
NNO + linear · major resonance form
Nitrous oxide
N₂O
≈273× CO₂ · a centuries-long lifetime
OOO + bent · ≈117° · resonance
Ozone (tropospheric)
O₃
Short-lived, but a potent warming agent & smog

Lewis structures show valence electrons as bonding pairs (lines) and lone pairs (gold dots), with formal charges marked in red. N₂O and O₃ are drawn in their dominant resonance form; the true bonding is delocalized across equivalent structures. 100-year global-warming-potential (GWP) figures are approximate.

Live · molecular motion

Greenhouse gases in the air, vibrating & drifting

Real atmospheric molecules are never still. They translate, tumble, and their bonds stretch and bend, the very vibrational modes that let them absorb outgoing infrared and trap heat. Atoms are coloured by the CPK convention used in chemistry.

C O N H

Schematic 2-D motion for illustration. CPK colours: carbon (dark), oxygen (red), nitrogen (blue), hydrogen (white). Bond orders shown as single, double, and triple lines.

How we plan to tackle global GHG emissions.

Our advocacy centers on biomaterials, national security, education policy, and renewable energy. We designed a point-absorber wave farm for off-grid Arctic communities to displace barged diesel.

Global footprint · selected engagements

Where our policy work reaches

Yakutat, AK · Point-absorber wave farm designIqaluit, NU · Arctic community microgrid policyOttawa, ON · Provincial natural-resource agenciesWashington, D.C. · Congressional statute advocacyBrussels, BE · European parliament briefingsBrisbane, AU · Climate-resource conflict workshopNingaloo Reef, AU · Coral reef restorationWellington, NZ · Sheep-wool biomaterials workshopEdmonton, AB · Provincial council partnershipsStrasbourg, EU · Education to green-workforce pipeline
Selected work · case studies

Where our engineering meets policy

Renewable energy
Arctic wave microgrids

Point-absorber wave farm design for off-grid coastal communities, engineered to displace barged diesel.

Biomaterials
Mycelium textile cycles

Carbon-negative circular materials piloted at our Biomaterials Research Center, with replication guides published openly.

Security nexus
Climate-resource workshops

Briefings and conflict workshops connecting resource stress to national-security planning across partner regions.

Education policy
Green-workforce pipeline

Curriculum-to-workforce advocacy linking climate education with durable regional employment.

THE PROBLEM CO₂ CH₄ N₂O SF₆ CO₂ CH₄ Gigatonnes of heat-trapping gas, 1 to 25,000× as potent as CO₂. OUR LEVERS 01 Atmospheric & carbon- cycle science 02 Foreign-policy analysis & advocacy 03 Community-scale wave energy & biomaterials THE OUTCOME CO₂ Emissions drawn down, the Keeling curve bent back toward baseline.
Direct funding · Gen-Z climate action
We put capital straight into the hands of Gen Z activists.

Rather than routing money through institutions, we award discretionary grants directly to Gen Z activists, between $3,500 and $8,500 each, for self-directed climate-action projects. The amount flexes with project scope, fieldwork costs, and the partners involved. Here is where some of it has gone.

Grant awarded to this activist
Per-activist award · range $3,500–$8,500
0Gen Z activists funded to date
$0Average grant per activist
$0Total deployed across projects

Three disciplines.
One framework.

Our advocacy reaches beyond renewable energy, spanning education, national security, water, and land policy across universities, resource agencies, and legislatures.

01

Climate Science

Grounded in atmospheric data and carbon cycle science, we back the durable low-carbon solutions the evidence supports.

02

Geopolitical Strategy

Scarcity and displacement already reshape conflict. We propose land and conservation reforms that protect food and water before stress turns to violence.

03

Economic Architecture

From research funding to rare-earth policy, we design the economics that make climate resilience a national security asset.

04

Gen-Z Civic Leadership

Born as grassroots action, this work stays decentralized, youth-forward, and driven by those who inherit the consequences.

Grassroots action
at scale.

Case study: Pacific Northwest groundwater campaign

In 2024, The Keeling Pledge led a 13-county environmental law campaign across eastern Washington, a region acutely exposed to aquifer depletion and drought.

It combined legal research, organizing, and voter registration to defend groundwater protections for over 340,000 residents: science-grounded, legally rigorous, and measurably effective.

Campaign reach by county

Resident engagements and town halls across 13 eastern Washington counties
Campaign engaged up to 320 residents per county.
2,500Residents engaged across 45 town halls in 13 counties
18Organizations mobilized to defend groundwater conservation policy
3,400New voters registered in climate-vulnerable districts
15%Increase in early voting in targeted districts after campaign
50 lbsMycelium textiles produced at our Biomaterials Research Center
200+ lbsSingle-use plastics diverted from landfill during campaign period

Campaign timeline

August 2024
Biomaterials Research Center launched

Center founded to show climate solutions and economic development align. First mycelium textile cycle begins.

October to November 2024
45-town-hall community engagement tour

Field teams reach 13 counties, using data targeting to engage climate-vulnerable communities.

January 2025
Policy protection confirmed

Groundwater protections defended and cited by legislators as a model for community-driven advocacy.

Voter registration outcomes

New registrations and early vote change by district type, eastern Washington 2024 campaign
Climate-vulnerable districts saw 15% early vote increase.
Water policy protected

Conservation rules governing aquifer draw-down rates for the Columbia Plateau and Palouse aquifer systems successfully defended for 340,000+ residents.

Biomaterials innovation

Mycelium textile production demonstrates viable circular economy alternatives to petroleum-based packaging at community scale, with replication guides published openly.

Initiatives &
publications.

From policy research and public journalism to studio-based civic education and student pipeline programs, our output is designed to travel across institutions and generations.

Coming soon

Policy Research Lab

Translating atmospheric and geopolitical data into actionable national security doctrine.

Live

The Climate Ledger

A Substack newsletter on climate, geopolitics, rare earth minerals, and resource-driven conflict.

Read on Substack →
Coming soon

Student Pipeline

Workforce programs connecting Gen Z activists to the green energy sector, with hundreds placed to date.

In progress

Project Kendall Bridge

Embedding our climate and civic framework into design challenges for high school students, with a public symposium.

Will you help redefine what
security means for the next century?

Whether you represent a university, agency, parliament, or are a student ready to engage, we want to hear from you.

thorntondarelle@gmail.com
← Back to The Keeling Pledge

Climate does not cause war.
It loads the gun.

The link between climate stress and violence is measurable: a pathway from degradation through resource competition, state failure, and displacement into conflict. It is central to national security.

How climate stress becomes conflict

Climate stress does not pull triggers; it compounds existing fragilities. When drought cuts yields 30 to 40% in already-stressed regions, the resulting food insecurity, migration, and revenue collapse turn old grievances into violence.

The Sahel has lost over 48% of its arable land to desertification since 1960, alongside a 600% rise in organized violence. That is not coincidence.

In Syria, the 2007 to 2010 drought pushed 1.5 million farmers into cities, straining labor markets and sharpening tensions ahead of the 2011 uprising that displaced over 13 million.

Our position: Climate is a security issue deserving the same seriousness as nuclear proliferation or great-power competition. We build the policy infrastructure to treat it that way.

Climate stress

Drought, flood, sea-level rise, extreme heat reduce agricultural yields, freshwater access, and habitability.

Resource competition

Scarcity drives competition over land, water, and fisheries between communities, ethnic groups, and states.

Displacement and migration

Populations move. Receiving areas face rapid demographic change, labor market stress, and political backlash.

State fragility

Revenue collapse, institutional overload, and legitimacy crises weaken governments' ability to manage grievances.

Armed conflict

Pre-existing ethnic, political, and territorial disputes escalate under compounded stress into organized violence.

Climate-linked conflicts (2000 to 2023)

Intrastate conflicts with documented climate stress as a contributing factor (ACLED / IPCC synthesis)
Climate-linked conflicts rose from 18 to 51.

Climate migrants projected (millions)

Internal climate migration projections by region by 2050 (World Bank Groundswell Report, 2021)
Sub-Saharan Africa leads with 86M projected climate migrants by 2050.

Freshwater stress index

Share of countries at high or critical water stress, % (WRI Aqueduct, 5-year intervals)
Share of countries at high water stress rising steadily.
216MProjected internal climate migrants by 2050 (World Bank)
56%Of active conflicts have a documented climate stress factor
3xHigher conflict risk in countries with high climate vulnerability (IPCC AR6)
$23TEstimated economic cost of climate-linked conflict and instability by 2030
Interactive · global climate-security nexus
UNITED STATESBRAZILICELANDNORWAYU.K.GERMANYFRANCESPAINITALYUKRAINERUSSIATURKEYIRANIRAQSAUDI ARABIAEGYPTINDIACHINAAUSTRALIAAtlantic OceanPacific OceanIndian OceanCANADAMEXICOGREENLANDSWEDENPOLANDKAZAKHSTANLIBYAALGERIANIGERIAETHIOPIADR CONGOSOUTH AFRICAARGENTINAJAPANINDONESIAPAKISTANYEMENAFGHANISTANArcticHondurasSahelS. SudanSyriaBangladeshQatarClimate-security hotspotFeatured: Gulf desalination strike
Select a hotspot to explore →
Basemap & cartography: The Keeling Pledge · Hotspots: ACLED, World Bank Groundswell, IPCC AR6
Select a hotspot to see the climate-security case study.
1
Illustrative scenario · water security

When the water plant is the target

Qatar draws ~99% of its drinking water from desalination, with only days of reserve. A single strike on a Gulf plant can cut most of a city’s supply within hours, making total dependence a first-order vulnerability that warming deepens.

Illustrative scenario. Desalination dependence: Qatar General Electricity & Water Corp.; Gulf vulnerability: FAO / regional water-security analyses.

Persian GulfDOHADIRECT HITSeawater intakescreened & pumpedReverse-osmosis trainssalt removed under pressureTreated water to Doha~99% of supply is desalinatedPotable water

Project Halcyon

A climate-security simulation and strategic negotiation exercise on transboundary water governance. Halcyon tests how institutional design, verification, and structured diplomacy change the outcome when water scarcity meets fragile politics.

More than 270 river basins cross international borders. Under mounting drought and demand, mismanaged shared water can sharpen grievances and instability, yet the same systems open real room for cooperation. Halcyon places participants in the seats of national decision-makers during a fast-escalating water emergency to see which governance choices defuse a crisis and which inflame it.

Explore the simulation →
Exercise at a glance
Simulated crisis window72 h
Negotiation cycles12
Delegations6
Participants41
Core indicators8
Climate-security simulation

Project Halcyon

A strategic negotiation exercise on transboundary water governance, built to reveal how institutions, verification, and timing decide whether scarcity ends in cooperation or conflict.

72h
Simulated crisis window
12
Negotiation cycles
6
Delegations
41
Participants
8
Core indicators
← Back to the Security Nexus
The challenge

Water stress rarely starts a war on its own.

More than 270 river basins and countless aquifers cross international borders, supplying billions of people. Climate change is making those flows less predictable just as demand for food and energy climbs. Scarcity acts as a force multiplier: it amplifies the political, economic, and institutional weaknesses already present rather than creating conflict from nothing. Whether a basin tips toward contestation or cooperation depends far less on rainfall than on the systems built to manage it.

Pathway 01

Livelihoods and grievance

Failing harvests and lost income erode trust in governments seen as unfair or ineffective, hardening domestic politics.

Pathway 02

Displacement

Water shocks drive internal and cross-border movement, straining receiving areas and fragile settlements.

Pathway 03

Misperception

Without shared data, a sudden change in flows reads as a hostile act, inviting preemptive or retaliatory moves.

What the exercise asks

Five research questions

01Decision-making

Scarcity under pressure

How does resource scarcity shape interstate decisions under uncertainty and time pressure?

02Format

Which table works

Are mediated plenaries, issue-specific working groups, or backchannels most effective when tension is high?

03Trust

The role of verification

How do monitoring and transparency mechanisms move trust, compliance, and perceived fairness?

04Durability

Surviving the next shock

What makes agreements hold across repeated crises, including shocks that arrive before old disputes settle?

05Escalation

Reducing risk, keeping options

Which interventions cut escalation while preserving domestic legitimacy and strategic flexibility?

How it works

Each cycle runs four stages

Twelve cycles compress a 72-hour emergency. New shocks arrive mid-stream, so institutions and strategies are tested as conditions keep shifting.

1
Crisis shock

A reservoir failure, leaked imagery, or migration spike resets the risk picture and forces fast reassessment.

2
Strategic deliberation

Delegations set objectives and red lines, weighing domestic pressure against regional stability.

3
Negotiation

Structured diplomacy moves from problem definition to options, package design, and sequencing.

4
Assessment

Facilitators update the eight indicators and feed results back so consequences are visible.

Six seats at the table
Upstream

Dam-holding state

Significant storage and hydropower-export ambitions.

Downstream

Agricultural state

Depends on predictable flows for irrigation.

Midstream

Transit state

Balances domestic needs against outside pressure.

Convener

Basin commission

Limited but pivotal convening authority.

Guarantor

External power

Offers mediation and financial incentives.

Independent

Technical observer

Supplies neutral data, assessments, and verification.

What we measure

Eight core indicators

Escalation Risk

Probability of confrontation from posture, breakdowns, and rhetoric. Scale 0–100.

Tension

Regional instability from signaling and compliance. Scale 0–100.

Trust Retention

How credible commitments stay over time.

Agreement Durability

Whether deals survive later shocks.

Humanitarian Impact

Displacement, food insecurity, and water access combined.

Verification Compliance

Adherence to monitoring and data-sharing.

Negotiation Efficiency

Speed from confrontation to workable deals.

Cross-Border Stability

Governance strength and cooperative behavior overall.

What we found

Four patterns held across runs

Finding 01

Verification beats good faith

Deals built on independent monitoring proved far more resilient than political assurances. States accepted bigger concessions once breaches were detectable through agreed procedures rather than answered by retaliation.

Finding 02

Early dialogue lowers escalation

Talks opened in the early stage of a crisis produced steadier outcomes. Preventive engagement managed misperception before narratives hardened into zero-sum positions.

Finding 03

Shared information cuts miscalculation

When parties jointly validated reservoir levels and planned releases, sudden changes stopped reading as hostile. Restricted information drove more escalatory responses to ambiguous events.

Finding 04

Structure makes deals durable

Phased formats, joint problem definition, then options, then sequencing, yielded clearer priorities and more creative packages than open-ended bargaining.

A representative run

Twelve cycles, measured start to finish

These figures are internal to one run of the simulation, not field data. They show the scale of improvement that stronger institutions, robust verification, and early structured engagement can produce.

Escalation Riskindex 0–100, lower is better
34 after 78 before
Tensionindex 0–100, lower is better
39 after 81 before
Trust Retentionscore, higher is better
74 after 42 before
Agreement Durability% surviving shocks
86% after 37% before
Verification Compliance% adherence
91% after 51% before
Cross-Border Stabilityindex, higher is better
79 after 44 before
Before (cycle 1)After (cycle 12)

For Escalation Risk and Tension a shorter green bar is the better result, since lower scores mean less risk.

What it points to

Six policy priorities

01

Basin-wide monitoring

Build integrated hydrological networks and shared data platforms so every riparian sees the same timely picture.

02

Stronger institutions

Give basin organizations clear mandates, decision rules, and dispute resolution, with real community participation.

03

Water in security planning

Fold water and climate risk into national security strategy and coordinate water, energy, and defense agencies.

04

Rapid-response diplomacy

Pre-negotiate crisis channels and emergency consultations so parties convene fast when stress spikes.

05

Verification as standard

Make joint monitoring a core pillar of agreements and tie support to transparency and compliance.

06

Train on scenarios

Use exercises like Halcyon to stress-test policy and institutions before a real crisis arrives.

Where it goes next

A modular research agenda

Halcyon is built to extend. Future iterations open up new stressors and linkages.

AI-assisted negotiation support Multi-basin spillover dynamics Energy and water linkages Climate migration scenarios Cyber and hybrid threats to infrastructure Long-term institutional resilience
← Back to the Security Nexus The Keeling Pledge home
Founder · The Keeling Pledge

Darelle Thornton

Undergraduate at Berea College reading Economics and Political Science, headed toward law with a concentration in national security. A multidisciplinary researcher and policy practitioner working across nanotechnology, nuclear engineering, environmental jurisprudence, and security strategy.

Work united by one commitment: bridging science, law, and policy for equitable civic and climate action.

From Akron, Ohio Heritage Jamaican American Role Gates Foundation Commissioner Founder The Keeling Pledge

The work

01

Energy & materials research

As a Research Fellow, advanced materials for seawater uranium extraction to strengthen domestic nuclear energy, alongside closed-loop nuclear fission reengineering. Recognized with the NASA Earth System Design Award.

Nuclear · Nanotech
02

National security & strategy

Worked with AI startups and German institutions on an autonomous Multi-Domain Command and Control architecture for drone swarm coordination and maritime ISR, plus analytical research on Middle Eastern intrastate conflicts and U.S. defense posturing.

MDC2 · Maritime ISR
03

The Keeling Pledge

Connected more than 450 students to the green energy sector, led international environmental campaigns, and restored and protected 70 acres of coral reef, on the conviction that climate action and national security are one table, not two.

Civic · Climate

Recognition

NASA Earth System Design Award

For contributions to civilian nuclear fission innovation, including seawater uranium extraction and closed-loop fission reengineering.

Congressional recognition

For the carbon-negative polymer developed during earlier research at the University of Akron, now used in automotive and aerospace manufacturing.

Research projects

Project 01 · Energy & materials

Bio-inspired nano-traps for uranium from seawater

Seawater holds the largest known reserve of uranium on Earth, yet at roughly three parts per billion it hides among far more concentrated competing ions. This project built porous "nano-traps" that capture it anyway.

0mg/g
Uranium capacity of the best material
0%
Removed from spiked water in minutes
0mg/g
Pulled from real seawater, ~3× benchmark
0min
To reach ~95% of equilibrium uptake

The central idea was borrowed from biology. Natural protein scaffolds bind metals not through a single chemical bond alone, but through supporting second-sphere interactions that reinforce that bond. The team recreated this effect synthetically, building chelating sites into porous organic polymers and adding a helper group beside the binding site.

That binding site was an amidoxime group, long known to grip uranyl ions. The innovation was placing an amino group right next to it. In the strongest material, with the amino group in the ortho position, that neighbor lowers the charge on the captured uranyl and acts as a hydrogen-bond acceptor, tightening the overall hold. The relative position mattered: the ortho design clearly outperformed the para version.

The numbers bore this out. Capacities reached around 530 mg of uranium per gram of adsorbent across the 36–356 ppm range, with more than 99.99 percent of uranium removed from contaminated water within ten minutes, and the material stayed selective even against a 500-fold excess of competing ions.

The decisive test was real seawater. After 56 days submerged, the ortho material had taken up 4.36 mg per gram, roughly triple a benchmark adsorbent, while losing less than 5 percent of its capacity compared with clean conditions. Crystallographic and density-functional studies then confirmed why, pinning down the binding geometry and the hydrogen bonding behind the gain.

Taken together, the work points toward an economically realistic route to mining nuclear fuel from the ocean, and to remediating uranium-contaminated water, both of which feed directly into the case for durable, low-carbon nuclear energy.

Project 02 · Biotechnology

Lipid nanoparticles for delivering CRISPR genome editors

Gene editing can target the root cause of disease. The bottleneck has always been delivery: getting the editing machinery safely into the right cells. This work maps how lipid nanoparticles became the leading non-viral way to do it.

0forms
pDNA, mRNA, and RNP delivery routes
0%+
Serum TTR knockdown, single dose in model
0mo
Editing durability after one treatment
0
CRISPR-LNP therapies reaching human trials

Lipid nanoparticles are the same delivery technology behind the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. This review lays out how that platform now carries CRISPR/Cas9 into the body, and why each format involves a different trade-off.

CRISPR can be packaged three ways: as plasmid DNA, as Cas9 messenger RNA paired with a guide RNA, or as a preassembled ribonucleoprotein complex. They differ in editing efficiency, off-target risk, and how long the editor lingers in the cell, which is why no single format wins for every application.

The chemistry turns on four lipid ingredients working in concert, with ionizable lipids doing the heaviest lifting. They stay neutral in the bloodstream to slip past the immune system, then gain a positive charge inside the acidic endosome, rupturing it to release their cargo into the cell. Particle size, surface charge, and added targeting ligands then steer where the particles accumulate, with the liver as the natural default.

The review connects this to the clinic, including the first in-vivo CRISPR therapies to reach human trials, for transthyretin amyloidosis and hereditary angioedema, where a single dose drove deep, durable reductions in the disease-causing protein. It closes on the open frontier: delivering the extra DNA template needed for precise gene correction, not just gene knockout.